Sea-Intelligence analysis shows that during the pandemic period, a mix of high demand and loss of capacity due to vessel congestion resulted in record vessel usage rates, which in turn resulted in a rise in spot rates, both of which peaked in February 2022.
However, vessel utilisation has fallen significantly since then; in the case of the Transpacific, it has now returned to pre-pandemic levels, whereas in the case of Asia-Europe, it initially fell below pre-pandemic figures but has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.
According to Sea-Intelligence, depending on whether utilisation is growing or declining, the dynamic between utilisation and market rates changes. When Transpacific utilisation was rising, spot rates stayed largely constant at a low level until a trigger point of around 90% nominal vessel utilisation caused a sharp rise in spot rates.
“When utilisation levels started to decrease since the peak in February 2022, we see a much more linear relationship between utilisation and spot rates, as illustrated in Figure 1 for the Transpacific trade,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
Murphy went on to explain, “We see the same general pattern for Asia-Europe, although with a bit more noise. Overall, the rate developments in the Transpacific and Asia-Europe trades match expectations very well, if the assumption is a market operating with a close link between supply, demand, and pricing.”
However, as Sea-Intelligence data shows, there appears to be no obvious link between utilisation and spot rate levels in Transatlantic traffic. Unlike the Transpacific and Asia-Europe trades, falling utilisation levels have so far had no effect on trade pricing, suggesting that another mechanism must be at work in setting rate levels for this particular trade.
Nguồn: Theo Container News